Missed me by thaaat much.
The doomed Phobos-Grunt spacecraft … will re-enter Earth’s atmosphere between Saturday and Monday (Jan. 14-16) …. [P]hobos-Grunt was identified to be no high-risk object … due to the relatively low dry mass of the errant spacecraft — just 2.5 tons.
There is about 11 tons of toxic propellant onboard, adding up to the probe’s total mass of 13.5 tons. [S]tudies by the Russian space agency (known as Roscosmos) and NASA indicate that Phobos-Grunt’s fuel [propellant] tanks should burst high above the Earth, releasing a load of propellant that will subsequently dissipate. “More than 50 percent of all re-entered spacecraft material is titanium, beryllium or steel, which has a melting point twice that of aluminum, so the likelihood of the fuel tanks surviving is very low” [i.e. lower (what's "very" mean?)] …. “The fuel is [propellants are] reported to be hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide, which boil at [235 F to 69 F] respectively, so it will evaporate at high altitude once the tanks go.” [more]
Hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide (di-nitrogen tetroxide, actually, aka NTO, or mixed oxides of nitrogen, aka MON) are major-league toxic, and the NTO/MON will dissolve your lungs from the inside out.
Hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide are also hypergolic (i.e. they explode on contact without needing an ignition source, which is why they’re used in the Titan family of liquid-propellant boosters and ICBMs), so let’s hope the propellant tanks don’t land together intact.
(What? Yes, that would be a bad thing.)
Don’t worry your little heads, kids, the propellant tanks won’t survive re-enty.
If they fail at the same time, though, there’ll be one helluva ‘splodey show.
On the other hand, there’s a re-entry capsule on board which is designed to survive re-entry;
but it probably won’t, since it probably needs to be stabilized and oriented properly to survive,
but I could be wrong about that.
So, yeah, we’ll probably all survive; but if you’ve gotta go, swing for the fence.
*whew* It missed us and scattered itself across the Southern Hemisphere between the SE Pacific and Brazil.