The Congressional Budget Office recently released its updated Budget and Economic Outlook, which highlighted a key theme that recurs in many economic policy discussions: a rapid recovery is projected to begin relatively soon and to reliably deliver the economy back to full health in about four years. The problem is that this full recovery has generally been forecast to be four years away since the Great Recession began five years ago

…CBO’s latest economic forecast shows a rapid recovery starting in late 2013 and the full output gap closing by 2017. However, in January 2008, CBO projected this full recovery would have happened by January 2012, and in January 2010, it projected full recovery by 2014…


  1. dick, not quite dead white guy
    Posted February 22, 2013 at 9:48 am |

    Congressional Bullshit Office

  2. mojo
    Posted February 22, 2013 at 10:19 am |

    They have to work with the data they’re given, Dick. Guess who determines what data they see.

    PS: I was reading what purports to be the Talibunnies list of 22 ways to deal with drones. My personal favorite, number 4:

    4. Placing a group of skilled snipers to hunt the drone, especially the reconnaissance ones because they fly low, about six kilometres or less.

    Yess, yes – a MERE six thousand meters, folks. Easy peasy.

  3. Thunderbottom
    Posted February 22, 2013 at 10:55 am |

    “The economy will recover any day now, swear to Gawd!”

    A report published about four years ago by UCLA economists, Lee and Ohanian, stated that the “Great Depression” would have ended around 1934 if the Roosevelt administration hadn’t intervened. The report said that, in spite of massive Federal intervention, the Depression did not officially end until mid-1943, in the midst of the Second World War. Treasury Secretary Henry Morganthau admitted to Congress in 1937 that massive Federal spending had done little if anything to ameliorate the economic problems afflicting the nation.

  4. TimO
    Posted February 22, 2013 at 10:57 am |

    Would have been underway if someone hadn’t been voted back in…

    My wife is in the high-end retail construction/development business and coming down to November all the high-rollers were gearing up to go nuts this spring. Now that the election has passed and we got the bad news, lots of projects are getting delayed, scaled back or cancelled. Some stuff is going forward but we’re going to limp on for another four years.

    Even worse, there is every indication that Hillary will sweep the next one, too. Unless there is positive movement in the next Congressional elections, we’re looking at a twenty year period of malaise…

  5. DougM (Progophobe)
    Posted February 22, 2013 at 11:10 am |

    Reckon my post above is just pilin’ on, then, eh?

  6. Steve Skubinna
    Posted February 22, 2013 at 11:29 am |

    In 1919 the British government adopted the Ten Year Rule, which was an assumption that any major war was at least ten years away and all services were held to that assumption in their budget projections. Needless to say it became an excuse to not modernize the military and was simply automatically renewed every year. It was not formally abolished until 1932, which is why WWII didn’t begin until 1942.

    Wait, what?

  7. dick, not quite dead white guy
    Posted February 22, 2013 at 1:47 pm |

    who determines what data they see.
    Exactly mojo. GIGO.

  8. Merovign
    Posted February 22, 2013 at 5:19 pm |

    Didn’t the CBO say it identified six times as much as the sequester in waste alone?

    Waste is more important to Obama than firefighters and petting zoos.

    If the spending increases are cut, God will kill a Domo-Kun. EXTERMINATE! EXTERMINATE! EXTERMINATE!